London – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law at the beginning of February 24, 2022, under kyiv’s heavens still stained by the smoke of Russian missile attacks.
Three years later, the devastated nation still lives under the extraordinary powers granted to the government to maintain its defensive and existential war against the invasive Russian forces of President Vladimir Putin. Powers that Russia is wielding to undermine the war leader of the country.
According to the Constitution of Ukraine, the elections, whether presidential or parliamentary, cannot be held while the martial law is in force.
Moscow has been trying for months of arming the democratic freezing of Ukraine, with Putin and its allies framing Zelenskyy as illegitimate and, therefore, inadequate to participate in peace conversations.
President Donald Trump now seems to be lending his weight to the Kremlin campaign.
The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Ukraine, on February 13, 2025, President Donald Trump in Washington, on February 4, 2025 and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, February 10, 2025.
AP/Reuters/EPA-EFE/Shuttersock
On Wednesday, Trump criticized his Ukrainian counterpart as “a dictator without elections”, which caused a generalized dismay of Trump’s comments both within the United States and especially among European allies.
Trump also said, without offering evidence, that the Zelenskyy public approval index was “up to 4%.” The main recent surveys show Zelenskyy’s approval index to more than 50%.
The impulse for new elections “is not a thing of Russia,” Trump said. “That is something that comes from me and it also comes from many other countries.”
A source close to the Ukrainian government, which did not want to be appointed, since they were not authorized to speak publicly, he told ABC News that they believe that the impulse comes from those who “believe that Zelenskyy, personally, is a problem because he is not Sufficiently, it will not accept anything they propose or anything they demand. “
Kyiv has repeatedly warned that the elections during war time would be severely destabilizing. If Ukraine is forced to an insecure and insecure choice, “we could see the absolute political chaos in kyiv,” said the source.
Actually, until now, the legitimacy argument has almost exclusively comes from Moscow.
“You can negotiate with anyone, but due to their illegitimacy, it has no right to sign anything,” Putin said about Zelenskyy in January, repeating his false statement that Ukraine’s inability to hold elections in 2024 meant that the president’s mandate there were expired.
The country’s parliament and its speaker “remain the only legitimate authorities in Ukraine,” Putin said in May 2024.
kyiv’s foreign allies have dismissed Putin’s claims, pointing out the totalitarian nature of the Kremlin government and the carefully managed electoral theater of Russia, which has kept Putin in power for more than two decades.
They have also delayed Trump’s attacks against Zelenskyy, and most leaders expressed solidarity with him. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example, said it was “incorrect and dangerous to deny the democratic legitimacy of President Zelenskyy.” Great Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer also said it was “reasonable” not to celebrate elections during the war, after a call with Zelenskyy.
Trump’s national allies mobilized to support the president and criticize Zelenskyy. Elon Musk, for example, said Trump “is right to ignore” the Ukrainian president. Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters: “We need elections in Ukraine,” while Senator Josh Hawley also said that Zelenskyy “should celebrate an election.”
The majority of Ukrainian politicians and experts have warned that any contest held during the war would be vulnerable to Russian interference, could not guarantee the representation of soldiers deployed on the battlefield or refugees displaced internally or abroad, and threaten to destabilize to the State in its most vulnerable vulnerable. moment.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament that represents the Zelenskyy party and the president of the body’s foreign affairs committee, told ABC News that Putin “wants to use an electoral campaign during the war to undermine stability with Ukraine.”
“Putin is trying to push this narration through someone in Trump’s entourage,” said Merezhko.
A man male passes by a cardboard that represents President Donald Trump, exhibited in the window of an American bar in St. Petersburg, Russia, on February 19, 2025.
Olga Maltseva/AFP through Getty Images
The Trump effect
Trump’s recent attacks against Zelenskyy seem to have reinforced the political position of the latter. Both allies and the rivals recovered by the Ukrainian President’s office after Trump’s sides.
“Only Ukrainians have the right to decide when and under what conditions their government should change,” wrote former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on Facebook. “None of us will allow such elections before the end of the war. Our enemies and even our allies do not like it, but it is true.”
Serhiy Prytula, another prominent political figure, urged compatriots to “ignore the accusations of rhetoric and” dictator “of Trump.”
The source close to the Ukrainian government said that certain figures in Trump’s orbit want Zelenskyy to be replaced by a more malleable successor, a less likely to withdraw the controversial US efforts to force a peace agreement.
“According to its logic, the problem here is not Russia or the invasion of Russia of Ukraine, it is the ‘current war,'” said the source. “What is the mechanism to change that and, in your opinion, create the conditions for someone who would meet more in kyiv? They are choices.”
The source said Trump’s team is wrong to think that Zelenskyy is in unstable political fields. “They are operating under all these false assumptions, one of which is that if you have elections in Ukraine, it will necessarily result in the success of a candidate who is willing to bend to whatever Trump demands,” they are demanding, “said .
“I don’t think they have anyone in mind,” added the source. “I only think they trust their ability to create that individual in some way or to reduce some kind of private treatment with someone.”
Even if the United States and Russia achieved Zelenskyy in favor of a more flexible successor “, if you end up with kyiv leadership that is willing to reduce some kind of agreement that is absolutely unacceptable for a large segment of Ukrainian society, we could see fragmentation , even from the Ukrainian army, “they said.
“If the Trump administration pushes this government, or any Ukrainian government, too far, I think this scenario becomes a real one, and this is certainly not of interest or interest of Europe, but I do not see how it is of interest to states United either. “
Ukraine supporters wave flags and banners while protesting outside the Russian embassy on February 22, 2025 in London, the United Kingdom
Leon Neal/Getty Images
Zekenskyy challengers
For now, little appears on the path of a specific challenge for the holder.
In kyiv, Valeii Zaluzhnyi, former Ukrainian commander in Chief who now serves as kyiv ambassador to the United Kingdom, is widely seen as the only possible Zelenskyy potential challenger.
Zaluzhnyi fell publicly with the president and his team, cousin among them Andriy Yermak, head of the Zelenskyy office, at the end of 2023 for public comments, frame the war as a “stagnation.”
It is not clear if Zaluzhnyi would represent the choice. The former commander in chief has dodged questions about any future political ambition.
But a November survey of the organization of the Social Monitoring Center put the former general at the top of the preferred potential presidential candidates backed by 27% of the 1,200 respondents. Zelenskyy followed 16%, with former President Petro Poroshenko with 7%.
The Ukrainian military operate a self -propelled pion canyon in a frontline position in the Donetsk region, on February 22, 2025.
Genya Savilov/AFP through Getty Images
An February survey conducted by the International Institute of Sociology of kyiv (KII) indicated a decreased confidence in the current president compared to the extraordinary maximums of the first months of the war. But it is still high compared to most democratically selected leaders. The public confidence in Zelenskyy between 1,000 respondents was 57% in February, compared to 77% in December 2023 and 90% in May 2022, about three months after Russia’s invasion. The latest survey showed a 5% increase in the confidence of December 2024.
Another recent Survey of the Identity and Borders In Flux project in association with Kiis published on February 19, showed that two thirds of the Ukrainians approve of Zelenskyy’s actions.
The Kiis survey found that confidence in the civil government of Ukraine in general fell to 26%, a 52% decrease in 2023. In contrast, respondents reported an overwhelming 96% confidence in the Ukrainian army, and 88% He says they trust Zaluzhnyi.
The confrontation between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi ended with the first assuming an ambassador publication in the United Kingdom, in which the former general has maintained a relatively low media profile and avoided any public rebirth of tensions with the president.
You cannot say the same as Poroshenko, another possible electoral rival, with whom the president is now locked in a very public battle. Earlier this month, Zelenskyy signed a decree that sanctioned Poroshenko and several other rich Ukrainians connected politically by allegedly undermine national security.
Poroshenko dismissed sanctions as politically motivated and unconstitutional. “Why are they doing this? I hate, fear and revenge,” he said in a statement. “And because they have elections. Not us. The Government.”
The IBF project survey showed a much lower proportion, 26-32%, of the Ukrainians would vote for Zelensky in an election. But that still exceeds Poroshenko, its closest current rival, and remains well above the 4% figure presented by Trump.
Zelenskyy has not been clear in his own political objectives. In 2022, the president said that “definitely” will remain in his position until Kyiv reaches the victory. “After that, I don’t know,” he added. “I’m not thinking about that now, I’m not ready.”
Peace could be dangerous for Zelenskyy if Ukrainian voters do not agree with their terms.
A former official, who asked not to be appointed for fear of reprisals, told ABC News that the president “must blame Trump” if Ukraine is forced to a controversial peace agreement.
“He cannot stop this war now and assume responsibility, because for him, it will be a political suicide,” they said.
